‘Future’ Category Archives

 
26
Mar

Reports, plans, educational technology, broadband, millenials an interesting mix

by Cathy in Distance Education, Education, Education Technology, Future, Higher Education, Uncategorized, University, online learning

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Several reports or plans related to higher education, education technology, and online learning have been released in the last several months that indicate changes in how students learn, how they access their learning materials, and how that content is delivered.  In addition to this I will also give an overview of Millenials from the Pew Research Center.

In January 2010 the Sloan Consortium released their report on online education.  This report indicates that online experienced a growth of 17% in the last year.  Students in online classes comprise 25% of all students enrolled in higher education today, or 4.6 million students.    This 29 pages report found on the Sloan Consortium website presented the following information:

  • This report serves to strengthen the theory behind the economy and enrollments in education in general and now provides a direct link between  online education and enrollments.
  • Despite the growth in online education this platform continues to struggle to be seen as a strategic part of the long term planning for baccalaureate granting institution and public institutions.  In addition to this faculty acceptance of online/distance education is stagnant.
  • Overwhelming the student in online courses and programs are undergraduate who make up 82% of the students enrolled.

The issue of retention in online is also addressed in this report.   The question “Is retention in online harder than in  traditional face to face courses?”  This was administered via a survey of Chief Academic Officers which indicated that most were neutral on the question.  However those who agree outnumber of those who disagree.  Specifics on why this perception exists were not asked or provided.

Another report which was released by the US Department of Education is the:  Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Review of Online Learning Studies.  I previously blogged on this report however what this report indicates is that online learning, can,  under certain conditions,  provide better learning experiences to students.

Another study with trends to watch in distance education is theK-12 Online Learning reportfrom the Sloan Consortium. this 37 page report, based upon a survey administered to over 10,000 school districts, with a5/4% return of valid surveys,  published in January 2009 indicates that:

Most significant in regards to this report is the growth in online education which is illustrated by:

The overall number of K-12 students engaged in online courses in 2007-2008, is
estimated at 1,030,000. This represents a 47% increase since 2005-2006.

Major findings were that the majority (63.1 %) of the public school districts in the United States had at least one student enrolled in either a fully online or blended course; that a majority of administrators in these districts predicted that enrollments would grow by approximately twenty percent over the next two years; and that the total number enrolled in online or blended learning courses was estimated at approximately 700,000 public school K-12 students.

Most districts indicated that they anticipate growth in online:  A majority of the respondents anticipated growth (66.3% of districts expect growth in their fully online course enrollments and 61.2% expect growth in their blended enrollments). Districts predict that on average the number of students taking online courses will grow by 22.8 percent over the next two years.

Respondents indicate that the following are the major reasons why online education has grown and will continue to grow:

These results indicate that the perceived importance of online learning related mostly to student needs as follows:

1. Meeting the needs of specific groups of students
2. Offering courses not otherwise available at the school
3. Offering Advanced Placement or college-level courses
4. Permitting students who failed a course to take it again
5. Reducing scheduling conflicts for students

The respondents also indicated the following concerns regarding online courses:

1. Concerns about course quality
2. Course development and/or purchasing costs
3. Concerns about receiving funding based on student attendance for online   and/or blended/hybrid education courses
4. The need for teacher training

Another report that is related to online learning in K-12 is the Keeping Pace report which provides the following details:

The Keeping Pace 2009 report:

  • Provides a national “snapshot” of the state of online learning as of fall 2009.
  • Discusses original data categorized by key issues such as funding, teaching, and accountability, including analysis and recommendations.
  • Presents program profiles from a cross-section of program types, including state-led and district-led, supplemental and full-time, charter schools, and both synchronous and asynchronous programs.
  • Provides state profiles of K-12 online learning for most states, divided into southeastern, northeastern, central, and western regions.
  • Identifies key issues in online learning, building on the data gathered through the development of the program and state profiles.
  • Features a Notes from the Field section with in-depth examination of important new issues in online learning from national experts.
TheKeeping Pacereport provides further details on the growth of distance education in the K-12 arena:

Keeping Pace estimates the number of full-time online students at about                        175,000.  States with the largest numbers of full-time online students include                 Arizona, Ohio, Minnesota,  Colorado, Washington, California, and Pennsylvania.

The Keeping Pace report provided an overview of several types of online learning programs but which was of specific interest to me was the following note regarding university led online K12 programs:

University-run K-12 online programs have often been
overlooked but are another component of the online learning
landscape. Online programs that have emerged from previous
independent study programs of post-secondary institutions
tend to have relatively low levels of teacher involvement.

Available via the US Department of Education is the report:  Evaluation of the Enhancing Education Through Technology Program: Final Report.  This report provides the following details on the federal program that supported improving student academic achievement in elementary and secondary schools through the use of educational technology.

This reports indicates a continued upward trend in Internet access by schools with 63% of teachers indicating that they had  high speed Internet access in their classrooms.   No gaps were noted between student access to computers in these schools however some gaps were noted between student access to laptops in these institutions.

Another report which provides information on significant trends in the online market in general which may pertain to distance/online education is Morgan Stanley’s Mobile Internet Report.

Covering 8 key themes regarding the Mobile Internet which are:

1)  Wealth Creation / Destruction is Material in New Computing Cycles – Now in
Early Innings of Mobile Internet Cycle, the 5th Cycle of Last Half Century.

Wealth Creation / Destruction Is Material in New Computing Cycles – History shows that massive technology changes typically shift dynamics between incumbents / attackers, creating winners / losers. A handful of incumbents (like Apple, Google, Amazon.com, and Skype) appear especially well positioned for the mobile Internet, the fifth new cycle of the last half century.
2) Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did and Will Be Bigger Than
Most Think – 5 Trends Converging (3G + Social Networking + Video + VoIP +
Impressive Mobile Devices).

…the explosive Apple iPhone / iTouch ramp shows why usage of mobile devices on IPbased networks should surprise to the upside for years to come. As 3G adoption hits inflection points in many markets, consumers are flocking to a broad range of IPbased  usage models over powerful mobile Internet enabled devices. We predict that smartphones will outship the global notebook + netbook market in 2010E and out-ship the global PC market (notebook + netbook +
desktop) by 2012E.
3) Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation + Impact, for Now – Depth of App
Ecosystems + User Experience + Pricing Will Likely Determine Long-Term
Winners.

Near term, Apple is driving the platform change to mobile computing and leading in user experience. Its mobile ecosystem (iPhone + iTouch + iTunes + accessories + services) market share and impact should surprise on the upside for at least the next 1-2 years. Longer term, Google Android’s open operating system (combined with clever device manufacturers), emerging markets competition, and carrier limitations may pose challenges to Apple’s market share upside. RIM may maintain the enterprise lead, thanks to its installed base, but the long-term outlook is challenging.
4) Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms (Social Networking +
Mobile) Emerging Very Rapidly.

Improvements in social networking and mobile computing platforms (led by Facebook + Apple ecosystems) are fundamentally changing how people communicate with each other and how developers, advertisers, and vendors can reach consumers. Mobile devices are evolving as remote controls for continually expanding types of real-time, cloud-based services – including emerging location-based services – creating opportunities and dislocations, empowering consumers in
unprecedented and transformative ways.
5) Growth / Monetization Roadmaps Provided by Japan Mobile + Desktop Internet.

Mobile Internet development in Japan and desktop Internet business
models provide significant runways for monetizing the mobile Internet through online commerce, paid services, and advertising; data access likely will continue to lose relative revenue share in the mobile Internet ecosystem.
6) Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier / Equipment Transitions.

Global mobile IP traffic is likely to grow 66x by 2013E (with 130% CAGR), per Cisco. Increasing 3G /smartphone penetration and emerging usage models (such as video / audio streaming) will stress carrier wireless networks. Carriers may be able to address the surge via capacity upgrades and offloading to Wi-Fi. Tiered data pricing (speed, quantity) will likely be critical to long-term revenue growth.

7) Compelling Opportunities in Emerging Markets.

Emerging markets have enormous potential for mobile Internet user growth, owing to low fixed-line telephone / broadband penetration + already vibrant mobile value added services. We expect 3G inflection points to be 2-3 years away, depending on the individual markets.
8) Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution.

Inherent conflicts between the wants / needs of consumers and those of incumbent TMT providers are creating challenges for regulators.

While there is not much in the report that is education related specifically the upward trend in the use of mobile technology is an indication that users may demand the delivery of content:  text, video, and audio via their handheld devices.

The Pew Research Center provides a wealth of information which may assist educators to determine where the use of technology is trending by users.  A significant report on the “Millennial Generation”was recently released by them. The report defines the millenial generation as that age group which born after 1980 – the first generation to come of age in the new millennium

75% of the respondents, aged 18 – 29 years of age in late 2009 when the survey was conducted indicated that they have a profile on a Social Networking site.  Another significant factor that impacts education decisions of this age group is the large unemployment rate..nearly 37% of this age group indicate that they are currently unemployed.  (pp 10)

When it comes to education the survey found;

Millennials are more highly educated when ranked with other generations at comparable ages. More than half of Millennials have at least some college education (54%), compared with 49% of Gen Xers, 36% of Boomers and 24% of the Silent generation when they were ages 18 to 28. Millennials, when compared with previous generations at the same age, also are more likely to have completed high school.

Millenials are more likely to point to technology as a factor that distinguishes them from other generations.  Chapter 4, page 25 of the report covers the technical use of this generation from social media to mobile phone use.   The report states, they are more likely to have their own social networking profiles, to connect to the Internet wirelessly when away from home or work, and to post video of themselves online.
.. a majority of them are likely to use their cell phones for texting.

The following is also noted:

Millennials who have attended college are more likely than those who have no college experience to be online, use social networking sites, watch and post video online, connect to the Internet wirelessly, and send and receive text messages. Younger Millennials are more likely than older Millennials use the internet and social networking sites, and to have sent or received a larger number of text messages in the past 24 hours.  (page 25)

Millenials are used and in face may expect the use of wireless connectivity as indicated by the survey:

Far more Millennials who have attended college than those without college experience connect to the internet wirelessly: 74% who have been to college use wireless connections away from home or work, compared with 47% of those who have not attended college. The question did not specifically mention use of wireless connections at school. However, these findings likelyreflect to some degree the general situation on many campuses, where wireless connectivity is ubiquitous.

The use of a cell phone is common for this generation the results indicate that:

More than eight-in-ten (86%) adults now have a cell phone, including majorities across all age groups. Millennials are somewhat more likely than all other age groups to have a cell phone: 94% have one, as do 90% of Gen Xers and 89% of Boomers.

Given these statistics  as we design learning programs, campuses and other learning environments the needs of not only Gen Xers, Baby Boomers but also ensure that these programs and learning experiences are geared towards the needs of the millenials..the worlds is moving forwards in the advanced use of technology..and we can’t turn back the hands of time..we can only move ahead.   It is likely that their experiences during this recession will also influence their approach to education, the choices they make and their need for technology to access their education via online or distance delivery.

The next plan to watch is the National Broadband Plan. This plan is broken into seven market segments which includes Education, Public Safety, Government Performance, Civic Engagement, Health Care, Energy and Environment.   According to the website the plan achieves the following:

The National Broadband Plan lays out a bold roadmap to America’s                        future. These initiatives will stimulate economic growth, spur job                            creation, and boost our capabilities in education, healthcare, homeland                    security and more.

The plan was created by the Federal Communications Commission as a result of a series of workshops, seminars and a public forums.

Specifically attributed to education is the following:

  • Education. Broadband can enable improvements in public education through e-learning and online content, which can provide more personalized learning opportunities for students. Broadband can also facilitate the flow of information, helping teachers, parents, schools and other organizations to make better decisions tied to each student’s needs and abilities. To those ends, the plan includes recommendations to:
    • Improve the connectivity to schools and libraries by upgrading the FCC’s E-Rate program to increase flexibility, improve program efficiency and foster innovation by promoting the most promising solutions and funding wireless connectivity to learning devices that go home with students.
      • Accelerate online learning by enabling the creation of digital content and learning systems, removing regulatory barriers and promoting digital literacy.
      • Personalize learning and improve decision–making by fostering adoption of electronic educational records and improving financial data transparency in education.

There are several recommendations under each category listed above however those specific to education can be found here on this website. the focus of the report seems to be implementing expanded broadband services will support an infrastructure which will increase student access to online education.  Part of this initiative will include teacher and student training to better use the technology that they have available.   This plan will put into place minimum standards which schools and libraries will have to measure their progress in achieving adequate services to their students and patrons.   I can’t even begin to address the scope of this report but if you relate to any of those categories at the very least that on it ‘s own warrants a review of the initiatives detailed in this report.

In January of 2010 the New Media Consortium presented it’s annual Horizons report on  emerging initiatives in technology in education.   This report gives an overview of technologies to watch in the short to long term.  These include; mobile technology, opencourseware/open content, electronic books, simple augmented reality, gesture based computing, visual data analysis.

As I have illustrated with the above reports it may seem that technology, virtual learning environments, and new technologies are driving how we learn.  However our access to those learning materials, as well economy and generational factors also play a significant role as indicated by the data and information it seems that may very well be the case.

References
Allen, I., & Seaman, J. (2009). Learning on Demand Online Education in the United States 2009 (Rep.). Sloan Consortium.

Horizons 2010 (Rep.). (2010, January 5). Retrieved March 24, 2010, from New Media Consortium website: http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2010/chapters/technologies/#0

Means, B., Toyama, Y., Murphy, R., Bakia, M., & Jones, K. (2009). Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning A Meta-Analysis and Review of Online Learning Studies (Rep.). US Department of Education.

Mobile Internet The Report (Rep.). (2009). Morgan Stanley.
National Broadband Plan Connecting America (Rep.). (2010). Federal Communications Commission.

National Education Technology Plan 2010 (Rep.). (2010). Office of Educational Technology Department of Education.

Piccianno, A., & Seaman, J. (2008). K-12 Online Learning A 2008 Survey of of US School District Administrators (Rep.). Sloan Consortium.

Taylor, P., & Teeter, S. (Eds.). (2009). The Millenials. Confident, connected, open to change (Rep.). Pew Research Center.

Watson, J., Gemin, B., Ryan, J., Wicks, M., Powell, A., Scantland, A., & Young, J. (n.d.). Keeping Pace with K-12 Online Learning (Rep.) (S. Bullock, J. Fitzpatrick, K. Loughrey, L. Pape, M. Revenaugh, T. Hitchcock, et al., Eds.).

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30
Jan

Online education, self directed learning and student centered learning

by Cathy in Education, Education Technology, Future, Higher Education

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In their article in USDLA’s Distance Learning for Educators, Trainers, and Leaders Maria Puzziferro and Kaye Shelton ask questions regarding online education and distance learning that we as educators in online courses and programs should be asking ourselves as we review our courses and programs for quality.

One assumption that they question is “how do we define student or learning centered and students are in control of their own learning (pp 10).   this made me stop and think..it is easy to assume that this latest “buzz word phrase,” of the day drives the direction of online education today and education in general.  If we can say that our courses, programs and services are student or learner centered..then job done..we are meeting the needs of students.  But do we really know what this means?  does the student?  Does your educational institution or organization have a common agreement regarding what learning/student centered means and does it matter?   or are these just good PR buzz phrases?  Here are some various definitions of the terms and the institutions who use them…

We use the term “learner centered” to refer to environments that pay careful attention to the knowledge, skills, attitudes, and beliefs that learners bring to the educational setting.…Teachers who are learner centered recognize the importance of building on the conceptual and cultural knowledge that students bring with them to the classroom…. (retrieved from ..http://cndls.georgetown.edu/crossroads/vkp/resources/glossary/learnercentered.htm, January 30,2010)
Learner-centered education places the student at the center of education. It begins with understanding the educational contexts from which a student comes. It continues with the instructor evaluating the student’s progress towards learning objectives. By helping the student acquire the basic skills to learn, it ultimately provides a basis for learning throughout life. It therefore places the responsibility for learning on the student, while the instructor assumes responsibility for facilitating the student’s education. This approach strives to be individualistic, flexible, competency-based, varied in methodology and not always constrained by time or place. (retrieved from http://www.abor.asu.edu/4_special_programs/lce/afc-defined_lce.htm )

...in the learner-centered paradigm, knowledge is the combined efforts of the teacher and the students. Under the guidance of the teacher, the students synthesize the gathered information using problem solving, critical thinking, and inquiry skills.

… the learner-centered classroom instruction, greater emphasis is given on the meaningfulness of knowledge. Students acquire knowledge to address real-life issues and problems.
In the learner-centered classroom, the students are actively involved in seeking out knowledge.
in the learner-centered classroom, the importance of right answers is overshadowed by the importance of creating better questions. Thus, assessment tools vary to embrace the multiple facets of learning. Besides paper tests, there will be portfolios,  and others.

…in the learner-centered paradigm, assessment is intertwined with classroom instruction. The results of a test are used to discover learning difficulties. The functions of the assessment are to diagnose learning problems and to encourage better learning.

The perspective that couples a focus on individual learners (their heredity, experiences, perspectives, backgrounds, talents, interests, capacities, and needs) with a focus on learning (the best available knowledge about learning and how it occurs and about teaching practices that are most effective in promoting the highest levels of motivation, learning, and achievement for all learners). This dual focus then informs and drives educational decision making. The learner-centered perspective is a reflection of the twelve learner-centered psychological principles in the programs, practices, policies, and people that support learning for all. (McCombs & Whisler, 1997)

Premises of the Learner-Centered Model

  1. Learners are distinct and unique. Their distinctiveness and uniqueness must be attended to and taken into account if learners are to engage in and take responsibility for their own learning.
  2. Learners’ unique differences include their emotional states of mind, learning rates, learning styles, stages of development, abilities, talents, feelings of efficacy, and other academic and nonacademic attributes and needs. These must be taken into account if all learners are to be provided with the necessary challenges and opportunities for learning and self-development.
  3. Learning is a constructive process that occurs best when what is being learned is relevant and meaningful to the learner and when the learner is actively engaged in creating his or her own knowledge and understanding by connecting what is being learned with prior knowledge and experience.
  4. Learning occurs best in a positive environment, one that contains positive interpersonal relationships and interactions, that contains comfort and order, and in which the learner feels appreciated, acknowledged, respected, and validated.
  5. Learning is a fundamentally natural process; learners are naturally curious and basically interested in learning about and mastering their world. Although negative thoughts and feelings sometimes interfere with this natural inclination and must be dealt with, the learner does not require “fixing.”
(McCombs & Whisler, 1997)
Student-centered learning (SCL), or learner-centeredness, is a learning model that places the student (learner) in the center of the learning process. In student-centered learning, students are active participants in their learning; they learn at their own pace and use their own strategies; they are more intrinsically than extrinsically motivated; learning is more individualized than standardized. Student-centered learning develops learning-how-to-learn skills such as problem solving, critical thinking, and reflective thinking. Student-centered learning accounts for and adapts to different learning styles of students (National Center for Research on Teacher Learning. 1999).
Students are actively involved.
Emphasis is on using and communicating knowledge effectively to address enduring and emerging issues and problems in real life contexts.
Professors role is to coach and facilitate.  Professor and student evaluate learning together.
Teaching and assessing are intertwined.
Assessment is used to promote and diagnose learning.
Emphasis is on generating better questions and learning from errors.
Desired learning is accessed directly through papers, projects, performances, portfolios and the like.
Approach is compatible with interdisciplinary investigation.
Culture is cooperative, collaborative, and supportive.
Professors and students learn together.
(retrieved from http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/instruction/assessment/dictionary/learnercentered.html  01/3/10)

After reviewing the above definitions I have reached the conclusion that defining learner centered is varied and without much to ‘hang your hat on” in regards to using as a foundation for quality, student success, development of quality and measuring the effectiveness of the program or course.

The most current term that I hear bandied about is “self directed learning..” exactly what is self directed learning and what does it mean for students?

Defined as:

self-directed learning (SDL), the individual takes the initiative and the responsibility for what occurs. Individuals select, manage, and assess their own learning activities, which can be pursued at any time, in any place, through any means, at any age. (retrieved from http://www.selfdirectedlearning.com/ 01/30/10)
Be sure and read Roger Hiemstra’s article on self-directed learning which includes the following definition:

Several things are known about self-directed learning: (a) individual learners can become empowered to take increasingly more responsibility for various decisions associated with the learning endeavor; (b) self-direction is best viewed as a continuum or characteristic that exists to some degree in every person and learning situation; (c) self-direction does not necessarily mean all learning will take place in isolation from others; (d) self-directed learners appear able to transfer learning, in terms of both knowledge and study skill, from one situation to another; (e) self-directed study can involve various activities and resources, such as self-guided reading, participation in study groups, internships, electronic dialogues, and reflective writing activities; (f) effective roles for teachers in self-directed learning are possible, such as dialogue with learners, securing resources, evaluating outcomes, and promoting critical thinking; (g) some educational institutions are finding ways to support self-directed study through open-learning programs, individualized study options, non-traditional course offerings, and other innovative programs.
(retrieved from http://www-distance.syr.edu/sdlhdbk.html, 01/3/10)

Regardless of how we apply these terms, how learners learned, and how teachers teach those students who are now working their way through the public school system (elementary and secondary), virtual schools, and charter schools, will be the genesis for tranformative change in our higher education institutions.   One question that I kept returning to is how do measure success or failure when through these definitions we are seeking to put more and more of the accountability for learning on the student.  And who should be accountable in this age of “no child left behind,” standardized testing of everything and the cookie cutter approach to education that entails ..if “student centered learning” en-vogue movement of the day, especially in online education.

What is quality in online education, what should we be measuring and evaluating?

There are new paradigms in education that should be considered in evaluating the online course or program.  How does that course or program engage the students, provide them with opportunities for synthesis of the materials, critical thinking, multi “everything,” validates their learning, provides for opportunities of natural and designed collaboration, communicate across multiple modalities to multi dimensional/diversified audiences?  How do we measure how students create content that is pertinent to the outcomes of what they need to learn, how they are teaching and learning with others.    How the use of PowerPoint is applied in an online course suddenly doesn’t seem so important as we prepare students for working, accessing information, communicating, and collaborating in a fast paced global society. Finally we must ask ourselves why it is so compelling that we
“control” our students.  Why must we funnel their access to content through our ‘filters,” and why do actually think we are really exerting any control any way.

So how do we define quality and does it make sense to measure the quality in online education against that of face to face..in my opinion that is a cop out…we should stretch the boundaries of where technology can take us in online education by expanding our definition of what that means outside of the parameters of face to face education.  There is so much more that we can do with technology, increasing the amount of time that a student spend reviewing online content, researching on  their own, and multi-modalities of delivery that meets an individual student’s needs.

It has been asserted that students, who have been dissatisfied with the content in their courses have actually reviewed the content in similar open courses available on the web. they do this in order to  supplement their face to face and online courses.

So then what is the role of teachers, faculty, and administrators.  This is the disruption of education that is occurring, we don’t know, our roles are in transition.  Do students and learners need us, can the tools of technology facilitate and define what student need to learn …will technology remove the education “middle” ground of delivery in much the same way that the music industry has been disrupted, cable televisions, newspapers, and publishing.  I ponder that in order for the ideal definitions of “student centered learning” and self directed learning to be achieved the educational institutions, the teachers, and administrators have to be removed from the equation?

As an educator I acknowledge that my profession is changing, when the student or consumer defines how to validate what he or she has learned and that validation is widely accepted then our educational institutions have been disrupted.   While I am excited by change, as always ..I am apprehensive and selfishly concerned how this change will impact me.

McCombs, B. L., & Whisler, J. S. (1997). The learner-centered classroom and school: Strategies for increasing student motivation and achievement. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

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11
Nov

Random thoughts on the book by Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near…

by Cathy in Future, Semantic Web, Uncategorized

1 Comment Comments

I have been reading Ray Kurzweil’s The Singularity is Near When Humans Transcend Biology, and maybe I should say…TRYING to read this book!  What follows are some of my random notes and observation on this book and the concepts, theories presented by Kurzweil, those things which I found significant from my reading of Kurzweil.   Fundamentally this is a fascinating book that is based upon science FACT…everyday that I get up I read something about an advancement in technology that demonstrates that why Ray Kurzweil presents in The Singularity is happening all around us everyday.

We are more dependent upon our technology for our day to day routines than we were 10 years ago … one may even ask if you can live in this world today without some sort of dependence upon technology..and the answer to that would be … no. Even without reading Kurzweil’s book, watching the videos, or reading articles about singularity what he presents is truly evident in today’s society.

So what is the Singularity. Kurzweil defines this as a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid and the impact so deep that our lives will be irreversibly transformed. (pp 7)  Kurzweil sets the date for the singularity, representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability as 2045.

In my perspective what is happening now, and what provides a foundation for Kurzweil’s singularity are the concepts behind artificial intelligence.  I am not a student of artificial intelligence, it is somewhat of a “murky” concept for me.  A web search indicates that artificial intelligence is..AI) is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science which aims to create it. Textbooks define the field as “the study and design of intelligent agents,”[ where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions which maximize its chances of success.John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956, defines it as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines.” (retrieved from  wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence)

Advancements in the field of research of artificial intelligence and brain research will tie the concepts together and provide machines, computers specifically, the ability to do “pattern recognition” which is what are brains are outstanding at doing.

Kurzweil identifies several things that our brains differ from computers  .. a quick summary of these are:

1.      A brains synapses are very slow
2.      The brain operates massively parallel
3.      The brain combines analog and digital phenomena
4.      The brain rewires itself
5.      Most of the details in the brain are random
6.      The brain uses emergent properties
7.      We contradict ourselves
8.      The brain uses evolution
9.      The patterns are important
10.      The brain is holographic
11.      The brain is deeply connected
12.      The brain does have an architecture of regions
13.      The design of a brain region is simpler than the design of a region.   (pp 150-153)

Kurzweil describes Moore’s Law, or the exponential growth of technology.  It is important to note that this exponential growth of technology does not extend itself just to computers, but extends it self to many areas such as development of alternative energy and capturing, for example solar energy.  This theory also extends itself to biology and the field of medicine, extending our life spans, almost everything that impacts our lives…is going to be impacted by this exponential growth of technology.

As Kurzweil describes it..we humans view growth as linear..however that is not the case, growth is exponential.  This is defined as:  “intuitive linear” view of technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.” To express this another way, it is not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at today’s rate of progress, that is). (retrieved from Kurzweilai.net  http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1)

What seems to underpin much of what Kurzweil presents is the law of accelerating returns.  The Law of Accelerating returns is defined as:

We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows:

Kurzweil proposes that we can, in my words, reprogram our cells..reprogram our biological “computers” to increase our longevity..can we live forever?  An article from The Futurist magazine...presents more on Kurzweil’s theories and launches a trailer on a movie on Kurzweil The Transcendent Man.   As this article conveys..what makes Kurzweil’s paradigm on The Law of Accelerating Returns and Moore’s Law is that it is based on tracking history of technical change back to the dawn of man.    In other words (my observations) our learning from one technical change to the next has been exponential since the dawn of our history.

So if change is happening as Kurzweil presents..why don’t we notice it, why isn’t more significant..because these changes are somewhat imperceptible to us for the most part.  If it has some significant impact on our jobs, disrupt our routine, or is a technology that we could fix ourselves one day and had to call in a specialist the next… I contend that these changes are not easily identifiable.

There is more so much more to this book…I could never hope to cover it in one blog..my observations are superficial.  What is important or significant to me may be different for another reader.  In the back of my mind remains the thought of how this would impact education and learning….of course Kurzweil’s Moore’s Law and Law of Accelerating Returns will certainly require increased cause and support for the “lifelong learning movement,” support for movement such as Micheal Trout’s “Learn anything, anytime anywhere..”  as well as his Eduit or eSingularity.

Resources on Kurzweil:

Kurzweilai.net

Inteview of Kruzweil by Dag Spicer at the Computer History Museum

This google video of Kurzweil’s presentation at Stanford.

Google Book:  The Singularity is Near when Humans Transcend Biology

The book is available on Amazon.

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